The largest IPO in history prices tonight, three times oversubscribed, and the strangest fact about it is this: a meaningful share of Friday's buyers have no view on the company at all. They are buying because a rule says they must. Meanwhile the people with the strongest view — the ones who have held the stock for a decade and are sitting on hundred-fold gains — are not allowed to sell yet. That inversion, between conviction and permission, is the most under-analysed feature of this entire cycle. Every desk note I've read this week is arguing about whether $1.78 trillion is the right number. They are arguing about the wrong variable. The thing that will determine how SpaceX — and the $3.6 trillion of AI paper queued up behind it — actually trades over the next twelve months is a mechanical sequence already written into the deal documents, and it has a date on it.
