Published on 5 March 2026, this article is a time-stamped scenario analysis of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. It separates three questions that are often conflated: how much physical supply is interrupted, how long the disruption lasts, and whether invoicing or reserve-allocation practices change. None of those outcomes follows mechanically from the others. The scenario weakens if tanker traffic is restored, spare capacity or inventories are released, freight and insurance premia narrow, and invoicing or reserve data remain unchanged.
Oil prices have already surged, and Goldman Sachs warns that prolonged disruption could push Brent crude to $100 per barrel within weeks. But the stakes go beyond barrels - this crisis could, under sustained disruption and observable reserve or invoicing changes, weaken the petrodollar system at the margin system, reforming global finance and investment landscapes.
