For most of our adult lives, the world operated under a familiar economic logic.
Goods became cheaper.
Technology improved efficiency.
Global trade expanded.
Interest rates trended lower.
It felt permanent because it lasted for decades.
From the 1990s through the early 2020s, the global economy benefited from an extraordinary combination of disinflationary forces. China entered global trade at scale. Companies moved production to lower-cost regions. Supply chains became leaner. Technology improved productivity. Capital became cheaper.
Consumers received more for less.
A better smartphone at a lower price.
Cheaper clothing.
Affordable electronics.
Faster delivery.
More choice.
For investors, the same environment created a remarkably durable playbook. Falling inflation supported lower interest rates. Lower rates lifted asset valuations. Globalisation protected margins. Cheap capital encouraged leverage and expansion.
That world is beginning to look increasingly historical.
The forces that drove prices lower for 30 years are weakening, and several of them are moving in reverse.
So will we be returning to the old regime at all?
Because if the structure of the economy has changed, the investment strategies built for the previous 30 years may become less reliable in the next 30.